Caste, not development takes centre stage as BJP, JD(U)-RJD prepare to battle for Bihar polls

Like Agatha Christie’s famous whodunit, the Bihar election started with an impressive list of issues: development, susashan, jungle raj, people’s DNA, special status and economic package. But one of by one all of them dropped off, leaving just one behind: caste equations.

Every dialogue emerging from Bihar’s theatre of elections suggests that all parties have now cast jaatiwad in the lead role. On Wednesday, BJP president Amit Shah set the tone of his week-long campaign by reaffirming his party’s faith in reservation system based on castes: “Since the Constitution was drafted, the BJP has been supporting reservation. Lalu ji is saying that if the BJP comes to power here then they will remove reservation. Lalu ji is telling safed jhoot,” Shah said at Begusarai.
Just a day ago, caste was the theme of another BJP leader’s Bihar dream. “If the BJP wins the election, the CM will not be from a forward caste,” party MP and CM-aspirant Giriraj Singh said.
It is not without reason that the BJP B-listers have brought caste back in the spotlight even when Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to talk about development. The equations in the closely-contested election are now stacked up in such a manner that minor swings on caste lines can change the outcome dramatically.
The upper caste voters are solidly behind the BJP. But they are being neutralised by the support the Mahagathbandhan is getting from Muslims, Kurmis and a sizeable portion of Yadavs. The NDA is banking also on the support of Paswans and Kushwahas, whose leaders Ram Vilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwahas are part of the alliance.
The BJP had entered the Bihar fray with its clever strategy of keeping its own vote bank intact and carving out huge chunks from that of the JD (U)-RJD-Congress alliance. With this objective in mind, it lured leaders from other communities like Pappu Yadav, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Ramkripal Yadav into its fold. The NDA appeared to be gaining initially also because of the rift within the secular front: factors like the exit of Mulayam Singh’s from the Mahagathbandhan and entry of the Left and MIM in the poll fray.
Modi’s rallies in September built the momentum further for the BJP, especially when discussions veered around development and the Rs 1.25 lakh crore package announced by the PM.
And then, caste made a comeback.
Some of the credit for making caste a major issue again in Bihar must go to the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat. His interview to the Organiser in which the RSS chief suggested a review of the existing reservation system gave the Mahagathbandhan an opening to redraw the battle lines.
“This is a fight between backwards and forwards,” Lalu Yadav announced dramatically, daring Bhagwat to tweak the reservation system if he had any dum in his moonch.
Lalu’s plan is simple. He knows his party has no chance to make a dent in the BJP vote bank of Brahmins, Vaishyas, Baniyas, Rajputs, Bhumihars and Kayasthas, or among supporters of Ram Vilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha. The Mahagathbandhan can win only if the backwards, especially the politically significant Extremely Backward castes unite against the BJP and the Mahadalits remain with Nitish Kumar.
The EBCs — or the pachpaniyas, as they are known locally — are a loose coalition of castes scattered across Bihar. They are believed to be between 20 and 25 per cent of the electorate. In a deadlocked election, their support could be decisive. So, both the alliances are now vying for their votes.
At the start of the campaign, it seemed that the EBCs were tilting towards the BJP, mainly because of fear of the return of Yadavs in power, who they see as their rivals among backwards. But the OBC vs EBC narrative may have now given way to the Forward vs Backward debate.
The current direction of the political discourse, where the Mahagathbandhan is setting the caste-based agenda and the BJP is playing catch-up, suggests the equations may be changing again on the ground.
Who will win? Well, even Agatha Christie would have found it difficult to predict the outcome of this thriller.